Search results for "Exchange rate"
showing 10 items of 102 documents
A Dynamic Analysis of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 Indices Under Different Exchange Rates
2017
The persistence analysis of short- and long-term interaction and causality in the international financial markets is a key issue for policy makers and portfolio investors. This paper assesses the dynamic evolution of short-term correlation, long-term cointegration and Error Correction Model (hereafter referred to as ECM)-based long-term Granger causality between each pair of US, UK, and Eurozone stock markets over the period of 1980--2015 using the rolling-window technique. A comparative analysis of pairwise dynamic integration and causality of stock markets, measured in common and domestic currency terms, is conducted to evaluate comprehensively how exchange rate fluctuations affect the ti…
Econometric Model to Estimate Defaults on Payment in the Spanish Financial Sector in Oliver Wyman's Stress Tests.
2016
This work develops an econometric model based on the exogenous economic variables used in Oliver Wyman´s report. In this case the model is used in order to estimate late payments (NPLs) by Spanish credit entities. A model based on variables considered to be optimal to quantify impact on the NPLs is developed by studying the aforementioned variables, modifying them and eliminating any which are superfluous. Furthermore, whether or not the model is optimal for long periods of time is corroborated. This is due to the fact that the scenario in Oliver Wyman´s report from September 2012 (Wyman 2012) is based on 30 years of Spanish economical historical data, as stated in the report itself. The re…
Predicting the Short-Term Exchange Rate Between United State Dollar and Czech Koruna Using Hilbert-Huang Transform and Fuzzy Logic
2017
In this paper, the combination of the Hilbert-Huang Transform, fuzzy logic and an embedding theorem is described to predict the short-term exchange rate from United States dollar to Czech Koruna. By Using the Hilbert-Huang Transform as an adaptive filter, the proposed method decreases the embedding dimension space from five (original samples) to four (de-noising samples). This dimension space provides the number of inputs to the fuzzy rule base system, which causes the number of rules, the time for training and the inference process to decrease. Experimental results indicated that this method achieves higher accuracy prediction than the direct use of original data.
Finances and credit: problems, conceptions, management
2001
Economic situation in the Baltic States is investigated, in particular the development of economics in transition is analysed in Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland. There are studied the following details: Monetary and exchange rate policy; Crediting and bank management; Development of securities market; Management of taxes and finance; Development of accounting policy; Pension reform perspective etc.
Exchange rates expectations and chaotic dynamics: a replication study
2018
Abstract In this paper the author analyzes the behavior of exchange rates expectations for four currencies, by considering a re-calculation and an extension of Resende and Zeidan (Expectations and chaotic dynamics: empirical evidence on exchange rates, Economics Letters, 2008). Considering Lyapunov exponent-based tests results, they are not supportive of chaos in exchange rates expectations, although the so-called 0–1 test strongly supports the chaos hypothesis.
Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate During the Asian Crisis: Identification Through Heteroscedasticity
2003
This paper examines whether a monetary policy tightening (i.e., an increase in the domestic interest rate) was successful in defending the exchange rate from speculative pressures during the Asian financial crisis. We estimate a bivariate VECM for four Asian countries, and improve upon existing studies in two important ways. First, by using a long data span we are able to compare the effects of an interest rate rise on the nominal exchange rate during tranquil and turbulent periods. Second, we take into account the endogeneity of interest rates and identify the system by exploiting the heteroscedasticity properties of the relevant time series, following Rigobon (2002). We find that while ti…
The effects of competitiveness on trade balance: The case of Southern Europe
2016
AbstractAccording to conventional wisdom, “peripheral” Southern European members of the euro area (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) suffer from a problem of competitiveness. Since their membership of the euro area renders devaluation impossible, adjustment should come through decreasing wages and prices in these countries, which, by improving the trade balance, should lead to a recovery of previous levels of employment and growth. In this paper, the authors estimate trade balance equations for the Southern European countries, both for total trade and for the trade performed with the European Union, taking three alternative measures of the real exchange rate, based on consumption price ind…
Trade balances and exchange rates in the long run for European Union countries
2000
This paper has found evidence that real effective exchange rates have a positive impact on the trade balance in the long run for major European Union countries. This result sheds more light on the long-run statistical relationship between those two variables, at least in the context of the Community. The existence of that link is sustained by the effects that income variables have on the trade balance. The outcomes of this analysis in support of a long-run equilibrium relationship are consistent with the imperfect substitutes model, confirming the validity of this model for economic policy implementation purposes. Low, long-run elasticities of the trade balance with respect to the real effe…
Bilateral De-Jure Exchange Rate Regimes and Foreign Direct Investment: A Gravity Analysis
2021
Abstract This paper introduces a novel dataset on bilateral de-jure exchange rate regimes. The new dataset accounts for the fact that officially pegging to one currency is uninformative about the exchange rate regime prevailing vis-a-vis other currencies, and it allows characterizing bilateral exchange rate regimes based on countries’ ex-ante announcements rather than ex-post observations. We use this data to estimate the effect of expected exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment (FDI). Starting from a simple model that suggests that announced exchange rate stability enhances bilateral FDI flows, we provide empirical evidence that lends support to this claim: countries that ar…
The real exchange rate in the long run: Balassa-Samuelson effects reconsidered
2017
Historical data for over hundred years and 14 countries is used to estimate the long-run effect of productivity on the real exchange rate. We find large variations in the productivity effect across four distinct monetary regimes in the sample period. Although the traditional Balassa-Samuelson model is not consistent with these results, we suggest an explanation of the results in terms of contemporary variants of the model that incorporate the terms of trade mechanism. Specifically we argue that changes in trade costs over time may affect the impact of productivity on the real exchange rate over time. We undertake simulations of the modern versions of the Balassa-Samuelson model to show that…